Supermarket Perimeter - July 2022 - 34

Meat & Poultry
BY ANDY NELSON
AN UNPRECEDENTED COMBINATION OF FACTORS affecting the
production and movement of foods around the world is having a major
impact on meat and poultry markets, and retailers and their supply
partners won't likely see that changing anytime soon.
" Given the strength in the markets during the first quarter of 2022,
there is a high probability that wholesale prices will remain supported
through the balance of 2022, " Brian Earnest, lead economist for animal
protein for CoBank, said in a recent report.
The US Department of Agriculture is currently forecasting that livestock
prices will be up 10% year over year for 2022 overall, Earnest said.
Surprisingly, he added, as dining restrictions have eased over the
past 12 months, retail channel support has seen minimal contraction.
With grilling season in mind, it's likely that the retail meat department's
focus will shift to profit margins over sales volumes this year, meaning
consumers can expect more creativity in the meat case.
Rather than vying for consumer dollars through aggressive price
points, " no price " features will be an attractive solution, according to
CoBank. Additionally, while prices for end cuts have been elevated,
grinds show moderate price support, suggesting a likely increase in
34 - JULY 2022
use of burgers and all-beef franks more frequently featured during
grilling season.
" If consumers' real incomes continues to decline along with higher
meat prices, we may finally see a significant change in their willingness
to pay for red meat, " Earnest said.
If that turns out to be the case, the US broiler industry may yet again
be well positioned for modest growth and strong margins. But CoBank
does not expect that the opportunity will likely rival the expansive
growth that occurred from 2017-20, when eight new broiler plants were
built in the United States.
Despite everything, surging demand
Over the past two years, ever-changing consumer behavior has
buffeted the food sector. Initially, consumers responded to the
pandemic by stocking up on grocery shelf staples and avoiding sit
down dining. As COVID outbreaks ebbed and flowed, so has consumer
restaurant spending.
But during that entire time, according to the report, retail meat
demand has remained steadfast.
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Supermarket Perimeter - July 2022

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Supermarket Perimeter - July 2022

Supermarket Perimeter - July 2022 - Intro
Supermarket Perimeter - July 2022 - 1
Supermarket Perimeter - July 2022 - 2
Supermarket Perimeter - July 2022 - 3
Supermarket Perimeter - July 2022 - 4
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