Supermarket Perimeter - March 2023 - 59

The Norwegian government's proposed tax on the industry introduces
a key uncertainty. If it becomes reality, it will have considerable
consequences on the industry. "
When it come shrimp, meanwhile, softer demand and high supply
have generated a low-price scenario that will persist in 1H 2023,
according to the report. Although costs are below the peak, Rabobank
expects a very challenging period for shrimp farmers globally.
" We expect supply growth to decline considerably in 1H 2023,
although Ecuador will still expand production. Demand from China is
the most unpredictable factor. China is back as the driver of demand,
although its foodservice industry, at least in early 2023, will be impacted
by fears of Covid infection. "
Inflation's lasting impact
Inflation, labor Russian sanctions and other supply chain issues will
continue to affect the retail grocery seafood marketing in the coming
months, according to a new study by Anne-Marie Roerink of 210 Analytics.
Out-of-stocks will likely continue to be a problem going forward,
extending the problems of 2022, when fresh, frozen and shelf-stable
assortment was lower than in 2021, Roerink said.
Thirty-five percent of shoppers encountered out-of-stocks on
planned purchases during their last trip to the grocery, she said, citing
IRI data. Fresh seafood stocks overall were down 3.4% in the 52 weeks
ending Jan. 1, finfish was down 4.9% and frozen shellfish dropped 3.7%.
Most consumers are aware of and concerned about inflation, and
seafood is no exception, Roerink said.
Ninety-four percent of consumers say they're paying somewhat or a
lot more for groceries, and 97% of people who noted higher prices are
concerned about the level of inflation.
In addition, 30% of American households are having difficulty
affording needed groceries, 43% of Americans expect their financial
situation to be worse off a year from now 38% of American households
say their financial health is strained.
It's even more pronounced for fresh seafood, she said, leading to
growth in value-focused formats in recent years.
That said, seafood inflation has subsided considerably in recent
months. In the fourth quarter of 2022, all food prices rose 13.5%,
compared to just 2.5% for fresh seafood and 7.7% for frozen seafood.
Looking at 2022 as a whole, food prices climbed 12.4%, fresh seafood
9% and frozen 10.4%.
Still, the seafood price hikes from 2019 to 2022 were significant, and
not far behind food prices as a whole. Fresh seafood prices were up
20.9% and frozen up 21.8%, compared to 24.3% for all foods.
Seafood price inflation varies widely by species, according to the
210 Analytics analysis. Category powerhouse salmon averaged $10.43
a pound in 2022, up 11.6% from the year before. Shrimp, at $7.28 per
pound, was up 10.3%. Other varieties that saw double-digit spikes last
year include catfish (up 17.6%), cod (17.7%) and tilapia (39.3%).
Seafood varieties whose prices declined in 2022 included fresh crab
(-8.2%) and fresh lobster (-14%).
Category-wide, finfish prices rose 16%, while shellfish was up just .6%
in 2022.
Frozen seafood, which is often marketed with fresh in the perimeter
seafood section, saw more consistent increases across multiple
varieties.
Frozen finfish prices rose 17.6% in 2022 and shellfish 6.7%. By variety,
salmon was up 21.7%, shrimp 7.6%, pollock 14%, tilapia 25% and crab
5.5%.
Salmon is
weathering
inflationary
pressures better
than almost any
other seafood
variety.
supermarketperimeter.com
MARCH 2023 - 59
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Supermarket Perimeter - March 2023

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