Supermarket Perimeter - November 2022 - 43

Moderately-priced items will likely see the greatest sales boost,
she added.
" While fish and seafood have had a challenging sales year due to
price increases, some shellfish categories are setting up for a great
Christmas and New Year's season. Prices in lobster, crab and oysters
have declined significantly and, with meat prices still high, I think
consumers will be excited, " said Chris DuBois, executive vice president,
Americans protein practice leader, IRI. " Holiday celebrations are
expected to be strong and gatherings will be as large or larger than last
year. Smart retailers will be looking to promote these and I expect a
strong season for shellfish sales this year. "
Overall fresh shellfish sales dropped 16% for the 13 weeks ending Oct.
2, according to IRI, with the biggest losses realized in crawfish (-74%),
added value shellfish items (-47%), oysters (-36%), and scallops (-28.5%).
Sales of other popular shellfish items also fell, but not as steeply
as earlier this year. Crab sales
dropped 14.3%, shrimp sales
declined 17%, and lobster sales
were down 10% for the quarter
compared to the same quarter
last year.
The end-of-year holidays have
FRESH
SEAFOOD
SALES
13 weeks ending Oct. 2
vs. same time in 2021
SALMON
$662 million, up 6.9%
CRAB
$242 million,
down 14.3%
SHRIMP
$199 million, down 17%
LOBSTER
$85 million, down 10.2%
CATFISH
$51 million, down 15.4%
COD
$47 million, down 6.8%
TILAPIA
$44 million, down 20%
LOX/
SMOKED SALMON
$27 million, down 2.6%
Source: IRI
been home-centric for the past
two years " so we have a very
high bar to meet, " acknowledged
Anne-Marie Roerink, principal
at 210 Analytics. " At the same
time, I do think people are
still very much focused on
togetherness, relaxing and
celebrating and certainly we
still see decent engagement
with both convenience-focused
and premium items throughout
the store. "
Inflation concerns mount
While consumers may splurge
for the holidays, they are
increasingly concerned about
rising grocery prices, surveys
find. The US Bureau of Labor
Statistics' Consumer Price Index
shows that the cost of food at
home surged 13% in September
versus last September, while fish
and seafood prices jumped 8%.
In its September Survey of
Consumer Expectations, the
Federal Reserve Bank of New
York found that respondents
projected their spending will rise
by 6% over the next year, a drop
from the 7.8% rise predicted in its
I believe families being
able to freely gather this
holiday season will help
sales - even with the current
economic inflation. "
Denise Englade, Rouses Markets
August survey, per Reuters. The decline in spending expectations was
the biggest since the survey began in 2013.
Overall fresh seafood sales will likely be lighter than 2021, Englade
predicted, attributing that to " many factors including to but not
limited to the unprecedented sales we saw in 2021 due to COVID and
restaurants not operating. "
" I think the economy is going to keep customers a little more
conservative on purchases this holiday season. We will offer our
customers these items at a fair retail as we always do, " Englade noted.
" Everyone " is concerned about inflation, Roerink noted, including
consumers, retailers, and producers.
" Not only has inflation reached 40-year high levels, but it has been
high for a sustained period of time and the increase in credit card
debt combined with the decrease in savings is concerning as we look
towards the holidays. "
The rate of inflation when compared to a year ago has accelerated
every month since 2021, according to Roerink.
" In the early pandemic years, consumers' savings rates were far
higher than normal and credit card debt had declined. But come 2022,
consumers are yet again subsidizing income with savings and credit
cards to the point of seeing a much sharper pullback on volume in order
to curb spending. That volume decrease has been much sharper for
seafood than other categories. "
Roerink suspects shoppers are moving to familiar patterns of saving.
" When there is a lot of pressure on income, we always see items like
ground meats do better because they are versatile and cost effective.
Do new consumers know how to adapt seafood purchases like they
know to switch from beef to pork, or do they just drop out of the
category? "
Plus, seafood's premium reputation could stop people from even
swinging by the fresh seafood area to see what's available, Roerink said.
How specific species will perform this holiday
Shellfish items have struggled to keep up with prior year sales even
though some areas actually saw some price relief, Roerink noted.
Englade expects oyster products and some crab species to remain on
the higher side; as a result, she is expecting sales to be softer than last
holiday season.
However, shrimp rings and other shrimp products " will continue to
some of our top movers this holiday season, " Englade said.
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Supermarket Perimeter - November 2022

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